[This article first appeared at Common Dreams on April 21, 2026.]

by Steven J. Harper

When he declared war on Iran in violation of international law and the U.S. Constitution, President Donald Trump announced several objectives. He claims to have won the war, but Iran is emerging as the long-term victor.

Let’s count the ways.

“Regime Change”

No one doubted the capacity of the U.S. armed forces to decimate Iran’s far inferior military force. But to what end?

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that launching the attack would prompt a popular uprising that would lead to the overthrow of Iran’s theocracy. Listening to Netanyahu’s assertion, CIA Director John Ratcliffe called it “farcical.” Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio translated that word into language Trump would understand, “In other words, it’s bullshit.”

Trump chose to believe Netanyahu. Announcing the U.S.-Israeli assault, Trump told Iranians that this was their opportunity to reclaim their country. To win the war on Trump’s terms, the Iranian theocracy needed only to survive.

The attack killed the Supreme Leader of Iran and top members of the government. But immediately, the serpent grew another head – the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who had lost his wife and teenage son in the bombing. The new leader is known for deep, long-standing ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) security establishment. His appointment signaled a transition to a more heavily militarized, hardline, and anti-Western regime.

Trump calls this “regime change.” By his definition, Admiral Karl Dönitz succeeding Adolf Hitler as head of the German state near the end of World War II constituted regime change too.

The Iran theocracy survived in an even more militant form.

Score: Iran 1, Trump 0

“Contain Iran”

[To continue reading, please click here to reach my Substack page: [no paywall]:

https://stevenjharper.substack.com/p/trumps-iran-war-anatomy-fo-a-debacle