About thebellyofthebeast

Adjunct professor at Northwestern University's School of Law and its Weinberg College of Arts & Sciences, contributing editor to ABA "Litigation" and "The American Lawyer," and author of "The Lawyer Bubble - A Profession in Crisis (2013), "The Partnership - A Novel" (2010), "Crossing Hoffa - A Teamster's Story" (2007) (A "Chicago Tribune" Best Book of the Year), and "Straddling Worlds: The Jewish-American Journey of Professor Richard W. Leopold" (2008). Recently retired after 30 years at Kirkland & Ellis LLP. Fellow of the American College of Trial Lawyers. Graduated from Harvard Law School (magna cum laude) and Northwestern University (combined B.A./M.A. in economics, with distinction and Phi Beta Kappa).

PUTIN AND TRUMP IN PLAIN SIGHT: TRUMP-RUSSIA TIMELINE THROUGH FEB. 24, 2019

[NOTE: On Feb 27, 2019, this post appeared at Dan Rather’s News & Guts.]

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are operating together in plain sight. Their actions raise questions at the heart of the Trump-Russia scandal: What is the source of Putin’s leverage over Trump? And what is Trump receiving — or hoping to receive — as a reward?

The answers could explain why a brief new entry in the Trump-Russia Timeline may turn out to be among its most momentous, historically. It illustrates the ongoing global repercussions of Putin’s successful bet on Trump. And it focuses on Ukraine.

Sanctions

US policy with respect to Ukraine was one reason that Russia supported Trump’s election. Obtaining relief from economic sanctions— including those imposed after Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014 — has been among Putin’s highest priorities. Apart from their impact on Russia’s international standing and domestic economy, Putin has taken them personally because they affect his own wealth and that of his oligarchs. Shortly after announcing his candidacy, Trump offered— in plain sight — to lift them.

At a town hall session on July 7, 2015, an audience member made her way to a microphone and asked Trump about US-Russia relations. Trump said that if he became president, “I don’t think you’d need the sanctions.” The audience member was Maria Butina, who was later convicted of being a Russian agent seeking to influence senior Republican leaders via the NRA.

For Trump, removing Russian sanctions is still a work in progress. He has done what he can to resist and minimize the newer penalties imposed on Russia for interference in the 2016 presidential election. But he’s also helping Putin win more significant prizes: Ukraine itself and the destruction of the Western alliance.

Undoing “Geopolitical Catastrophe”

In 2005, Putin called the breakup of the Soviet Union (which had included Ukraine), the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20thcentury. Now he’s trying to rebuild that empire. Trump has spent his first two years in office attacking the Western alliance that has been a bulwark against those Russian ambitions.

In January 2017, Trump blasted NATO as obsolete, saying, “We should trust Putin.” Heading into his first NATO summit in July 2018, Trump lashed out at Germany. Days later in Helsinki, he sided with Putin, who acknowledged in their joint press conference that he wanted Trump to win the 2016 election. In Ukraine, the world is seeing why.

Ukraine in Peril

As Trump weakened NATO, Putin became bolder. On Nov. 25, 2018, Russians again violated Ukraine’s sovereignty, this time by illegally blocking the Kerch Strait, the waterway between Russia and Crimea. Russians seized three Ukrainian vessels and detained 24 Ukrainian seamen. On Jan. 15, 2019, a Russian court ordered eight of those sailors to remain in custody until late April.

Meanwhile, beginning on Dec. 17, 2018, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, repeatedly pushed the unsubstantiated Kremlin line that Ukraine is planning acts of aggression. In response to that concocted threat, Putin has been moving ground forces and weaponry to Crimea. On Dec. 22, he added fighter jets to the mix. Also in the picture — literally, from satellite photos— are short-range nuclear-capable missiles within striking distance of war-torn eastern Ukraine.

And now add the latest Trump-Russia Timeline entry relating to Putin’s assault:

Feb. 21, 2019: “Russia Says It Won’t Let Ukraine Stage New Provocations.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his spokesperson say, again without evidence, that Ukraine is preparing another provocation in the Kerch Strait.

Russian rhetoric continues to look like a pretext for worse things to come. As Putin destabilizes the world order, Trump is helping him. The mortal peril facing Ukraine is becoming a vivid illustration of the consequences. And it’s all happening in plain sight.

Here’s a complete list of the latest updates to the Trump-Russia Timeline:

EARLY DECEMBER 2016: Russians Arrest Intelligence Officers and Cybersecurity Experts for Treason (revision of previous entry)

FEB. 14, 2017: Trump Considers Public Explanations for Flynn Resignation, Tells Christie ‘Russia Thing Is All Over’

FEB. 14, 2017: Spicer Denies Any Contacts Between Trump Campaign and Russia, Makes Numerous Misstatements at Press Briefing; White House Does Not Correct Record (revision of previous entry)

MAY 6-7, 2017: Trump Decides to Fire FBI Director Comey (revision of previous entry)

SHORTLY AFTER MAY 11, 2017: McCabe Opens Counterintelligence Investigation Into Trump, Briefs Congressional Leaders

MAY 17, 2017: Former FBI Director Robert Mueller Named Special Counsel, Assumes Control of Counterintelligence Investigation into Trump

OVER THE JULY 4, 2017 WEEKEND: Trump Calls Lewandowski About Sessions

JUL. 9, 2017: Trump Tweets About Forming Cyber Unit With Russia, Then Walks It Back 

JULY 27, 2017: House Republicans: ‘Time to Go Play Offense’; Demand Second Special Counsel

AUG. 15, 2017: Russian Claims He Hacked DNC for Russian Intelligence Agency

REVISED: JUL. 16, 2018: In Helsinki, Putin Pushes Cooperation on Cybersecurity; Trump Sides with Putin (revision of previous entry)

REVISED: DEC. 12, 2018: Cohen Sentenced to Three Years in Prison (revision of previous entry)

LATE 2018: NYT: Trump Asks Whitaker to Have US Attorney in NY ‘Put in Charge of Cohen Case

FEB. 14, 2019: Senate Confirms Barr as AG

FEB. 18, 2019: Trump Quotes Supporter: ‘Illegal Coup on the President’; Tweets About Senate Intelligence Committee, Sessions, McCabe, Rosenstein, ‘Treason!’, ‘Leakin’ James Comey’ (revision of previous entry)

FEB. 18, 2019: Stone Posts Photo of Judge in Crosshairs

FEB. 19, 2019: Trump Tweets: ‘Witch Hunt’

FEB. 19, 2019: Judge Orders Stone to Explain His Instagram Post

FEB. 19, 2019: Trump Tweets About Andrew and Jill McCabe

FEB. 19, 2019: Trump Announces Intent to Nominate Rosenstein’s Replacement

FEB. 20, 2019: Trump Retweets and Quotes Supporters Attacking McCabe; Attacks NYT

FEB. 20, 2019: Cohen to Testify Publicly Before House

FEB. 21, 2019: Rosenstein: ‘My Time as a Law Enforcement Official is Coming to an End’

FEB. 21, 2019: Russian Foreign Ministry: ‘Russia Won’t Let Ukraine Stage New Provocations’

FEB. 21, 2019: Judge Imposes Broad Gag Order on Stone

FEB. 22, 2019: Trump Tweets Burr’s Earlier Statement, ‘Witch Hunt’; Retweets Supporter ‘Desperate Farce’

FEB. 22, 2019: NY Prosecutors Preparing State Charges Against Manafort

FEB. 22, 2019: Russian Prosecutors Seek 20-Year Sentences For Former Cybersecurity Officer and Private-Sector Expert Charged With Treason

FEB. 22, 2019: Mueller Memo in DC Case: Federal Guidelines Equal 17 to 22 Years in Prison for Manafort

FEB. 23, 2019: Trump Quotes Supporter: ‘No Evidence’ That Trump Has Done Anything Wrong; Retweets Another Supporter: ‘Lawsuit to Expose Coup Against Trump’

FEB. 24, 2019: Trump Tweets That Clinton and DNC Colluded With Russia; Attacks Lisa Page and Strzok

MUELLER’S SENTENCING MEMO

[NOTE: On Feb 23, 2019, this post appeared at Dan Rather’s News & Guts.]

Special counsel Robert Mueller’s sentencing memo in Paul Manafort’s DC case opens with the observation that he takes no position on the prison term that Judge Jackson should impose. But he also argues that “Manafort presents many aggravating sentencing factors and no warranted mitigating factors” under the federal guidelines. Those guidelines produce a sentencing range of 210 to 262 months; however, the statutory maximum for the two counts on which he pled guilty is 10 years.

Manafort turns 70 on April 1. If he has been playing fast and loose with the legal system in the hope that Trump will reward him with a pardon, the stakes just got higher.

“Even after he purportedly agreed to cooperate with the government in September 2018,” Mueller says, “Manafort, as this court found, lied to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), this office, and the grand jury. His deceit, which is a fundamental component of the crimes of conviction and relevant conduct, extended to tax preparers, bookkeepers, banks, the Treasury Department, the Department of Justice National Security Division, the FBI, the Special Counsel’s Office, the grand jury, his own legal counsel, Members of Congress, and members of the executive branch of the United States government.”

And that’s just the introduction.

Mueller observes that Manafort’s breach of the plea agreement operates asymmetrically: It leaves his obligations under it intact — including the requirement that “he not would seek or suggest” a downward adjustment in the government’s estimated sentencing guideline range. But the breach relieves the government of its promise to seek leniency on his behalf. Mueller also notes that the court has the discretion to run all or a portion of its sentence consecutively to or concurrently with whatever sentence Manafort receives in Virginia, where federal guidelines on his crimes call for 19 to 24 years in prison.

There’s a forward looking message to others in Mueller’s brief: “The sentence in this case must take into account the gravity of [Manafort’s] conduct, and serve both to specifically deter Manafort and generally deter those who would commit a similar series of crimes.”

In response, Manafort’s lawyers will file his sentencing memo on Monday. Mueller’s written tour-de-force will be a tough act to follow.

Here’s a link to the 25-page memo and 800-page attachment.

JUDGE TO ROGER STONE: “YOUR APOLOGY RINGS QUITE HOLLOW”

[NOTE: On Feb 21, 2019, my post appeared at Dan Rather’s News & Guts.]

Roger Stone’s attorneys put him on the witness today to explain his Feb. 18 Instagram photo of the presiding judge in his case. It included crosshairs near her head.

Marked as Exhibit 1 of the hearing, the accompanying text accused “Deep State hitman Robert Mueller” of using “legal trickery” to guarantee that his “upcoming show trial is before Judge Amy Berman Jackson, an Obama appointed Judge who dismissed the Benghazi charges against Hillary Clinton and incarcerated Paul Manafort prior to his conviction for any crime.” But by the end of that day, the image was removed and, through his attorneys, Stone had filed an apology with the court:

“Please inform the Court that the photograph and comment today was improper and should not have been posted. I had no intention of disrespecting the Court and humbly apologize to the Court for the transgression.”

The following morning, Judge Jackson ordered today’s hearing at which Stone was required show cause why the court’s previous media contact order in the case and/or the conditions of release should not be modified or revoked.

Putting any criminal defendant on the witness stand is risky, in part because it waives the defendant’s Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. But with respect to the gag order, Stone’s signed apology (transmitted through his lawyers’ unusual “Notice of Apology”) probably waived that right anyway. Another risk is that, after taking the stand, the defendant might lie and create new, independent criminal exposure to perjury charges. In any event, Stone’s Instagram post had placed him in danger of pre-trial incarceration, leaving him and his attorneys few options.

So after swearing to tell the truth, Stone reiterated his apology, using phrases that included: “I am kicking myself over my own stupidity… I offer no excuse for it… This is just a stupid lapse in judgment…[I]t was an egregious mistake.” Stone claimed that he was under stress and having trouble putting food on his table and paying his rent.

In response to the judge’s questions, Stone admitted that he posted the offending image. But he said that he has five or six volunteers, and couldn’t say who chose it, who sent him the image, or whether it was sent via text or email. In response to questions about his social media operation, Stone suggested that someone else may have used his phone to find the photo: “I do not exclusively use my own phone, that’s what I’m saying.” Stone also named four of his volunteers, saying that he couldn’t recall the names of all volunteers working for him a few days ago.

An attorney in special counsel Robert Mueller’s office asked, “You can’t remember the people who worked for you four days ago?”

Stone responded,  “No.”

Judge Jackson observed that Stone has insisted that his name be in the media every day since his arrest. Even after apologizing, he continued talking every single day. She asked Stone’s attorney, “Why won’t this happen in the future?”

“Sometimes a person learns a lesson, especially when a person is unrestrained in his speaking,” the lawyer answered. “It’s indefensible.”

“I agree with you there,” the judge said.

The government’s attorney argued for a stricter gag order, saying that Stone’s testimony was not credible. “That he committed a lapse in judgment is belied by the fact that even after he realized the post was a mistake, he continued to make statements to the media that amplified that message.”

After a recess, the judge returned with her ruling. She said that Stone has decided to pursue a strategy of attacking others. The Instagram post had a “more sinister message” from Stone, who “fully understands the power of words and symbols.”

“Thank you,” the judge said, “but the apology rings quite hollow.” Finding his testimony not credible (“couldn’t keep his story straight on the stand”) and that his release under the current media contact order would pose a risk to the public, she ruled, “No, Mr. Stone, I’m not giving you another chance.”

The court could have concluded that Stone’s incitement to violence aimed at a federal judge was at least as dangerous to the judicial system as the witness tampering that caused her to jail Paul Manafort pending trial. In that respect, Judge Amy Jackson Berman gave Stone a break. She ordered that Roger Stone can no longer speak publicly about the case or any participants in it.

But the judge warned that next time would be worse:

“Today I gave you a second chance. This is not baseball, you don’t get a third chance.”

LIARS FOR TRUMP: TRUMP-RUSSIA TIMELINE UPDATE THROUGH FEB. 17, 2019

[NOTE: On Feb 19, 2019, this post appeared at Dan Rather’s News & Guts.]

On Sept. 14, 2018, Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, pled guilty to conspiracy and witness tampering. In exchange for a reduced prison sentence on those charges, as well as on tax and bank fraud convictions in a separate case, he agreed to cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. He promised to tell the truth.

Then he lied. As a result, last week Judge Amy Berman Jackson voided Manafort’s plea agreement. Federal guidelines call for a 19- to 24-year prison term. Unless Trump pardons him, Manafort — who turns 70 on April Fools’ Day — will probably spend the rest of his life in prison.

Paul Manafort is the latest in the series of former Trump campaign advisers to incur criminal penalties for lying to federal investigators. The names change, but the subject of their lies remains the same: Trump’s connections to Russia. Using the name filter for the Trump-Russia Timeline reveals that, like Manafort, George Papadopoulos, Michael Flynn, and Michael Cohen lied in an effort to hide information about three key Russia-related issues — and they suffered legal consequences for it.

#1: Lies About Russians Helping Trump Win the Election 

Papadopoulos. Throughout the campaign, George Papadopoulos, a Trump campaign foreign policy adviser, communicated with individuals claiming to have Russian connections. They told him that the Russians had “dirt” on Hillary Clinton consisting of “thousands of emails” that would help Trump win. When the FBI quizzed Papadopoulos in January 2017 concerning those contacts, he lied about them. On Oct. 5, 2017, he pled guilty to making the false statements.

Manafort. During 2016, Paul Manafort shared 2016 presidential polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik, a liaison to Russian oligarch and Putin confidant Oleg Deripaska. Last week, Judge Amy Berman Jackson said that Manafort’s “relationship or communications” with Kilimnik is “a topic at the undisputed core” of Mueller’s investigation, and that Manafort had lied about it.

#2: Lies About Trump Softening Sanctions Against Russia

Flynn. Trump’s national security adviser Mike Flynn had numerous contacts with the Russian ambassador during the presidential transition. Flynn was seeking to soften Russia’s response to new sanctions that President Obama was imposing for Russia’s interference with the 2016 US presidential election. When the FBI later asked Flynn about those communications, he lied. On Dec. 1, 2017, he pled guilty to making the false statements.

Manafort. During his conversations with federal investigators, Manafort apparently also lied about his discussions with Konstantin Kilimnik concerning a Ukrainian “peace plan” — which has become a euphemism for efforts aimed at lifting US sanctions against Russia.

#3: Lies About Trump Tower-Moscow

Cohen. Through at least June 2016, Michael Cohen and Felix Sater communicated about Sater’s efforts to involve senior Russian government officials and bankers in developing Trump Tower-Moscow. Cohen himself contacted Vladimir Putin’s personal press spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, and briefed Trump Organization family members about the project. Cohen and Sater even discussed plans for a possible Trump trip to Moscow. When congressional investigators later asked Cohen to describe the status of the project during the campaign, he lied about it. On Nov. 29, 2018, Cohen pled guilty to making the false statements.

People lie for different reasons. But when so many people lie to federal investigators about the same thing, they open a window into the truth.

Here’s a complete list of the latest updates to the Trump-Russia Timeline:

OCT. 7, 2016: Burr Joins Trump Campaign

MAY 26, 2018: Manafort Authorizes Representative to Speak with Trump Administration Official on His Behalf [previous entry deleted)

NOV. 26, 2018: Mueller Says Manafort Lied After Plea Agreement; Shared 2016 Campaign Polling Data With Kilimnik (revision of previous entry)

JAN. 24, 2019: Trump Tweets About Cohen, Clinton; Senate Subpoenas Cohen (revision of previous entry)

FEB. 12, 2019: Burr and Warner Disagree on Senate Investigation

FEB. 13, 2019: Trump Tweets About Burr’s Comment: ‘NO EVIDENCE OF COLLUSION’ 

FEB. 13, 2019: Judge Finds Manafort Intentionally Lied To Feds After Signing Plea Agreement

FEB. 13, 2019: Nadler Invites Whitaker to ‘Clarify’ Testimony

FEB. 13, 2019: The Daily Beast: Election Security Task Forces Downsized; DHS Says Election Preparations Underway

FEB. 14-15, 2019: McCabe Launches Book Tour; Rosenstein Responds; Trump Attacks

FEB. 15, 2019: Judge Enters Limited Gag Order in Stone Case

FEB. 15, 2019: Mueller Files Manafort Sentencing Memo in Virginia Case

FEB. 16, 2019: Trump Retweets About Strzok, Page, Mueller

FEB. 17, 2019: Trump Quotes Limbuagh: ‘Mueller is a Cover-up’; Tweets ‘Witch Hunt’; Retweets Attacks on McCabe 

FEB. 18, 2019: Trump Tweets About Senate Intelligence Committee, Sessions, McCabe, Rosenstein; Quotes Supporter: ‘Illegal Coup on the President’

“ALL THE PRESIDENT’S LAWYERS”

The Trump era presents attorneys with opportunities for great distinction — and great shame. My article, “All the President’s Lawyers,” appears in the current issue of the ABA’s Litigation Journal. Here’s the link: https://www.americanbar.org/groups/litigation/publications/litigation_journal/2018-19/fall/all-presidents-lawyers/

THE WHITAKER “NUGGET” AND THE “HEART” OF THE MUELLER PROBE: TRUMP-RUSSIA TIMELINE UPDATE THROUGH FEB. 10, 2019

[NOTE: On Feb 13, 2019, this post appeared at Dan Rather’s News & Guts.]

When the president dangles a pardon under the nose of a cooperating witness in a federal probe, incentives change: Lying yields potential rewards rather than draconian penalties. Truth becomes elusive. Justice is obstructed and the rule of law loses.

That principle could have framed last week’s lead Trump-Russia story. Instead, another Trump era made-for-TV spectacle flooded the airwaves. But buried in acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker’s contentious hearing before the House Judiciary Committee was an item about pardons. A related development in the case against Paul Manafort illustrates the problem.

The Whitaker Nugget

During Whitaker’s four hours of actual questioning, he avoided substantive answers on most topics. His demeanor became the story. But at the two-hour and forty-eight-minute mark, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) asked him about discussions of pardons for Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, and Michael Cohen. Whitaker responded broadly:

“Congressman, as I have been acting attorney general, I have not been involved in any discussions of any pardons even and including the ones you’re discussing.”

Ninety minutes later, the day’s final questioner, Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX) asked:

Q: Did you ever create, direct the creation, see, or become aware of the existence of any documents relating to pardons of any individual?

Whitaker paused before answering: “I’m aware of documents relating to pardoning of individuals, yes.”

An inadvertent cliffhanger that few in the media noticed: Whitaker said he’d had no discussions with anyone about pardons, but he’s aware of documents relating to them. Alas, time expired. No follow-up questions. Hearing over.

The Manafort Connection

As the Whitaker show played out, another pardon story emerged in the case against Paul Manafort, who stands accused of lying to special counsel Robert Mueller after signing his plea agreement. On Aug. 22, 2018, Trump told a Fox News reporter that he would consider pardoning Manafort. As recently as Nov. 28, he said that a pardon for Manafort was not “off the table.”

During a Feb. 4 hearing, Andrew Weissmann, an attorney on Mueller’s team, outlined Manafort’s two motives for lying. The transcript redacts the first one entirely. As for the second, Weissmann said that Manafort could have been trying “to at least augment his chances for a pardon.”

One of Manafort’s alleged lies relates to his Aug. 2, 2016 meeting with Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian-Ukrainian dual citizen whom the FBI assesses as having ties to Russian intelligence. Kilimnik was Manafort’s liaison to sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, a Putin confidant. (On Jan. 16, 2019, Senate Republicans failed to stop Trump from lifting sanctions on Deripaska’s companies.)

Weismann emphasized that the Aug. 2 meeting “goes very much to the heart of what the Special Counsel’s office is investigating.” The Trump-Russia Timeline offers hints as to why. Here’s a sample of relevant entries:

July 11, 2015: A month after Trump announces his candidacy, he appears at a Las Vegas town hall and answers question from the audience. Russian national Maria Butina gets to a microphone and asks about his policy toward Russia.

“I don’t think you’d need the sanctions,” Trump answers, referring to crippling economic sanctions that the US, the European Union, and a host of other countries and international organizations imposed against Russia after its 2014 intervention in Ukraine.

It turns out that Butina is a Russian agent.  In 2018, she pleads guilty to conspiring with a Russian government official to establish “unofficial lines of communication with Americans having power and influence over US politics… for the benefit of the Russian Federation.” Among other vehicles, she uses the NRA to reach Republican Party leaders.

Mar. 29, 2016: Although Manafort is broke and deeply in debt, he goes to work on the Trump campaign for no pay. 

Apr. 11, 2016: Manafort asks Kilimnik how they can use Manafort’s new position on the campaign “to get whole.” During his tenure, Manafort discusses with Kilimnik a “peace plan” for Ukraine, and he transfers US polling data to Kilimnik.

June 9, 2016: Manafort attends the Trump Tower meeting with Russians connected to Putin’s government. They claim to have “dirt” on Clinton.

July 7, 2016:In an email to Kilimnik, Manafort offers to give Deripaska “private briefings” on the Trump campaign.

July 14, 2016: The Trump campaign successfully resists a proposed GOP platform plank that would strengthen US support of Ukraine against Russia.

July 22, 2016: On the eve of the Democratic convention, WikiLeaks releases nearly 20,000 emails that the Russians had stolen from the Democratic National Committee months earlier.

July 24, 2016: On national television, Manafort denies any link between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Which takes us to Aug. 2, 2016:Manafort meets with Kilimnik at the Grand Havana Club in Manhattan. What happened there? According to Mueller, Manafort is lying about it, perhaps to augment his chances for a pardon. That’s not how America’s justice system is supposed to work.

UPDATE: Feb. 13, 2019: The judge agreed with Mueller: Manafort “intentionally made multiple false statements to the FBI, the OSC, and the grand jury concerning matters that were materials to the investigation: his interactions and communications with [Konstantin] Kilimnik.”

Here’s a complete list of the latest updates to the Trump-Russia Timeline:

1995: Trump in Moscow Seeking Development Opportunities

FEBRUARY 2006: Trump’s Children Visit Moscow; Discuss Possible Trump Tower Deal (revision of previous entry)

SEPT. 25, 2015: Cohen Sends Trump Tower-Moscow Drawings to Sater

SEPT. 29, 2015: Trump Tower-Moscow Talks Proceed

OCT. 5, 2015: Cohen Sends Draft Letter of Intent Re: Trump Tower-Moscow

OCT. 9, 2015: Sater Sends Cohen Potential Trump Tower-Moscow Site Info

NOV. 3, 2015: Sater and Cohen Pursue Trump Tower-Moscow and Getting Trump Elected President (revision of previous entry)

DEC. 1, 2015: Sater Asks Cohen for Copy of Passport for Russian Visa

DEC. 17, 2015: Putin Praises Trump; Cohen to Sater: ‘Now is the Time’

DEC. 19, 2015: Sater and Cohen Discuss Trip to Russia for Trump Tower-Moscow Financing Discussion

DEC. 21, 2015: Cohen Wants Copy of Trump Passport

DEC. 29-31, 2015: Cohen and Sater Argue Over Delay in Solidifying Trump Tower-Moscow Deal

JAN. 25, 2016: Russian Bank Invites Cohen to Moscow

JUNE 13, 2016: Sater Sends Cohen Visa Application to Attend Russian Economic Forum

JAN. 28, 2019: Cohen to Testify Privately Before House (revision of previous entry)

FEB. 4, 2019: Manafort’s Alleged Lies Go ‘To The Heart’ of Mueller’s Investigation; Judge Postpones Sentencing Date

FEB. 4, 2019: Prosecutors Subpoena Trump Inauguration Committee

FEB. 5, 2019: DHS and DOJ: Foreign Governments and Agents Had ‘No Material Impact’ on Midterm Election

FEB. 5, 2019: Erickson Indicted for Fraud

FEB. 6, 2019: House Releases Witness Transcripts to DOJ, Including Mueller

FEB. 7, 2019: Trump Tweets About Schiff, ‘Witch Hunt’, ‘PRESIDENTIAL HARRASSMENT’ 

FEB. 7, 2019: Corsi Sues Stone for Defamation

FEB. 8, 2019: Trump Tweets ‘No Collusion’, Attacks Schiff, ‘GIANT AND ILLEGAL HOAX’ 

FEB. 8, 2019: Whitaker Testifies Before Congress

FEB. 9, 2019: Trump Tweets About House Judiciary Committee; Retweets Hannity and Others on Schiff, Simpson, Senate Investigation, Clinton, Russia Investigation 

FEB. 10, 2019: Trump Tweets That Burr Concluded ‘NO COLLUSION BETWEEN TRUMP AND RUSSIA

WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT, REMEMBER YOU WERE WARNED — REPEATEDLY: TRUMP-RUSSIA TIMELINE UPDATE THROUGH FEB. 3, 2019

[NOTE: On Feb 5,, 2019, this post appeared at Dan Rather’s News & Guts.]

Walk into a room full of people and turn off the lights. It will get their attention. If hackers shut off electricity to parts of the United States, perhaps the personal impact of Russia’s threat to the nation’s security will become apparent. Maybe it will also generate a closer look at Donald Trump’s responses to that threat. According to the US intelligence community’s annual “Worldwide Threat Assessment,” we’re approaching that moment.

Last week, America’s intelligence leaders informed Congress that Russia “is now staging cyber attack assets to allow it to disrupt or damage US civilian and military infrastructure during a crisis….” Russia has the ability to disrupt an American electrical distribution network “for at least a few hours” and is “mapping our critical infrastructure with the long-term goal of being able to cause substantial damage.”

Restoring a power grid is challenging. When the lights go out on democracy, restoring power to the people is a more daunting task. Here’s the report’s opening line about Russia:

“We assess that Russia poses a cyber espionage, influence, and attack threat to the United States and our allies.” (Emphasis in original)

Testifying before Congress, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats warned:  “[T]he Kremlin is stepping up its campaign to divide Western political and security institutions and undermine the post-WWII international order. We expect Russia will continue to wage its information war against democracies and to use social media to attempt to divide our societies.”

The next day, Trump moved the spotlight away from the report’s discussion of Russia by contradicting his intelligence leaders on Iran and North Korea — and chiding them in a tweet: “Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school.”

It’s a familiar pattern, as the Trump-Russia Timeline reveals:

#1: AUG. 17, 2016

Trump receives his first national security briefing from senior FBI officials who warn that foreign adversaries, including Russia, will probably try to spy on and infiltrate his campaign.

Trump’s response: At the “Commander-in-Chief” forum on NBC, he praises Putin. (SEPT. 7)As the Trump campaign racks up more than 80 contacts with Russia before the election, Trump and his advisers deny repeatedly that there are any.

#2: OCT. 7, 2016

The intelligence community publishes its statement that Russia is interfering with the election.

Trump’s response: At the third presidential debate, he says, “[Hillary Clinton] has no idea whether it is Russia, China, or anybody else… Our country has no idea.” (OCT. 19)

#3: DEC. 9, 2016

The Washington Post reports the CIA’s conclusion that Russia interfered in the election to help Trump win.

Trump’s response: “These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.” (DEC. 9) “They have no idea if it’s Russia or China or somebody. It could be somebody sitting in a bed someplace. I mean, they have no idea.” (DEC. 11)

#4: JAN. 6, 2017

The US intelligence community issues the public version of its report that Putin ordered the influence campaign promoting Trump’s candidacy.

Trump’s response: “As far as hacking, I think it was Russia. But I think we also get hacked by other countries and other people.” (JAN. 11) Days after the inauguration, the Trump administration considers an executive order unilaterally lifting Russian sanctions.

#5: JAN. 10, 2018

A Senate report details Putin’s ongoing worldwide attacks on democracy and emphasizes the need to counter Russia’s threat.

Trump’s response: He tells The Wall Street Journal that the Russia investigation is a hoax. (JAN. 11)

#6: MAR. 15, 2018, the Department of Homeland Security issues an alert: Russia has hacked into US utilities’ control rooms.

Trump’s response: He congratulates Vladimir Putin on winning re-election, ignoring the “DO NOT CONGRATULATE” warning from his national security advisers. (MAR. 20)

#7: JUL. 13, 2018

DNI Coats says Russian cyberattack warning lights are “blinking red.”

Trump’s response: When asked if Russia is still targeting the US, he says, “No.” (JULY 18)

#7: AUG. 2, 2018

At the White House daily press conference, DNI Coats and FBI Director Christopher Wray warn about ongoing Russian election interference in the midterms.

Trump’s response: At a rally that evening, he decries the “Russian hoax.” For the rest of the year and into 2019, the Trump administration drags its feet on implementing new sanctions against Russia.

#8: DEC. 17, 2018

A report for the Senate Intelligence Committee concludes that Russia is still using social media to help Trump by targeting special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.

Trump’s response:Tweets about the “Russian Witch Hunt” and “Hoax.” (DEC. 18)

Last week, Mueller said that non-public government discovery produced in the case against a Russian troll farm and 13 Russian nationals reappeared in a social media disinformation campaign against his investigation. As Putin’s global attacks continue, waiting for the lights to go out is an increasingly perilous path.

Here’s a complete list of the latest updates to the Trump-Russia Timeline:

EARLY 2016–MARCH 2016: Trump Seeks Loan From Deutsch Bank; Bank Refuses

JUNE 6-7, 2016: Don Jr.’s Phone Calls With Emin Agalarov (revision of previous entry)

SEPT. 5, 2018: Twitter Removes 3,483 Russian Troll Accounts

OCT. 30, 2018: Stolen Documents Used to Attack Mueller’s Case Against IRA and Prigozhin

PRIOR TO NOV. 6, 2018: Twitter Removes More Russian Troll Accounts

NOV. 29-30, 2018: Trump Cancels G-20 Meeting with Putin; Kremlin Pushes Back; Trump Meets with Putin After All (revision of previous entry)

JAN. 28, 2019: Sens. Blumenthal and Grassley Introduce Bill Requiring Public Report From Mueller

JAN. 28, 2019: Cohen To Testify Privately Before House

JAN. 28, 2019: Sanders Refuses to Rule Out Pardon For Stone

JAN. 29-30, 2019: US Intelligence Community Heads Warn: Russian Efforts Include Cyber Attacks, Crippling Infrastructure, Dividing Americans, and Interfering With US Elections; Trump Changes Subject

JAN. 30, 2019: Mueller: Disinformation Campaign Targeted Russia Investigation; Additional Uncharged Individuals Engaging in Unlawful Activities

JAN. 31, 2019: Trump Tweets About Ohr, ‘Witch Hunt’

JAN. 31, 2019: Trump to NYT: ‘I Like Roger’ Who Has Been Treated ‘Very Badly’; ‘We’ll Do Something on it at the Right Time’; Says He Had No Conversations With Stone About WikiLeaks 

JAN. 31, 2019: Trump to NYT: Business in Russia During Campaign

JAN. 31, 2019: Trump to NYT: Rosenstein Says He’s Not a Mueller Target, Doesn’t Know About SDNY’s Case Against Cohen, Denies Witness Tampering

FEB. 1, 2019: Belarusan Model Says She Gave 2016 Election Material to Deripaska