[This article first appeared at Common Dreams on March 30, 2026.]

by Steven J. Harper

President Donald Trump launched the Iran war based on his “gut instinct.” Global financial markets – the North Star that guides Trump – are telling him what his advisers and congressional Republicans won’t: His “gut” blew it badly, and his efforts to appease the markets are making the debacle worse.

He has proceeded in three phases. We’re now at the Trump panic phase.

Phase #1: Trump’s Gut Was Wrong and the Markets Scolded Him

Trump ignored the facts and relied on gut instinct to launch the war without making the case to America’s allies or the public:

“We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first.”

Trump’s baseless opinion contradicted the justification for war that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had provided to Congress a day earlier. Rubio said that Israel was going to attack and that Iran would retaliate by attacking U.S. interests in the region.

Even worse, Trump ignored long-predicted consequences:

· Iran attacked neighboring countries aligned with the United States.

· It closed the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. and its allies, disrupting one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

· The global price of oil surged from $72 per barrel to more than $100 per barrel.

· Because Iran’s major source of revenue is oil – accounting for 35 percent of its federal budget – Trump funded the enemy’s war chest.

Global financial markets plummeted.

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